Fireworks Tonight? - Unlikely
If you are looking for a homerun, tune in Thursday for the next round of the MLB playoffs. The hype for tonight's debate paints a cornered McCain needing to go negative. The storyline has more to do with the need to build excitement (ratings) than tonight's debate realities.
There are good reasons to expect a civil, moderately benign debate. (Then again, making predictions in this most unusual election cycle is a risking business.)
Why `Going Ballistic' Won't Happen:
1) The Town Hall Format requires a more hushed presence. The simple reality of standing next to your opponent obliges decorum. Voters do not assess just issues or character, they also judge the way candidates interact, how they treat each other. Politeness and respect matter--every viewer, after all, holds a lifetime of norms they apply.
And the room is not just shared with an opponent; the candidates must also interact with the live questioners. These folks represent the American people, and it's more than a cliché to "feel their pain."
Empathy and flattery are required. Each candidate has spent years trying to connect, why throw it away in a moment of angst.
2) McCain cannot count of Obama responding inelegantly. Obama may be too cool, even aloof, but he makes few mistakes. Why expect one now? Obama's passion is measured, apparent; he is no Michael Dukakis. His temperament seems deeply dispositional, unlikely ruffled.
A solitary irritated person would stand out. And with a narrative of McCain's anger just below the media radar, the risk of going negative seems immense.
More reasons and what to expect after the fold
